Weather Modification

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Weather Modification, is by definition, the act of intentionally manipulating or altering the weather. This can include techniques like cloud seeding, where substances are dispersed into clouds to encourage precipitation, or efforts to increase the impact of severe weather events, such as hurricanes or tornados. Weather modification is typically used in an act of aggression towards adversaries in the context of warfare, as it has violently disrupted ecosystems, enemies in warfare or even an entire society. It causes damage through induced storms or droughts.

In the late 1800s, attempts were made to induce rain using explosives, based on the idea that loud noises could influence weather. By the early 20th century, more scientific approaches emerged, but it was during the 1940s, with advances like cloud seeding, that modern weather modification gained large amounts of traction.

The next selections will go over the involvement of major American success in weather modification.

Project Cirrus was a joint effort by the U.S. Army Signal Corps, General Electric (GE), the Office of Naval Research, and the U.S. Air Force. Project Cirrus's main goal was to be able to seed a hurricane to make it stronger and to steer it. The following are all the elements used in the experiment, what it was meant to do and ranked from most used to least used in the experiment.

Silver Iodide - encourage precipitation by serving as a nucleating agent. 

Sodium Chloride - increase precipitation by enhancing cloud droplet formation 

Solid Carbon Dioxide (dry ice) - cool clouds and promote ice crystal formation

Liquid Propane - induce cloud formation and precipitation when vaporized and introduced into the atmosphere 

Smoke Particles - using smoke to act as nuclei for cloud condensation, aiding in precipitation 

Water Droplets - introducing water droplets into clouds to encourage further condensation 

Acetone - nucleating agent, enhancing droplet formation and affecting evaporation dynamics 

Soot - cloud condensation nucleus, promoting formation of larger droplets

According to Dr. Bernard Vonnegut, a researcher and one of the key figures in the experiment stated,  

"We were confident that we could alter a storm’s path. We believed that if we seeded the right cloud, we could change the storm’s course."

Another scientist in Project Cirrus, Dr. William J. Kahn publicly stated that "Theoretically,  we could strengthen a storm instead of weaken it."

Given all the elements used in the experiment, and their "theorized" effects on a storm, and what they would eventually end up doing, it's painfully obvious that this was no project to "weaken" a storm as some say. This was a strategic effort from major US Government controlled organizations to publicly experiment with a storm in order to make it as strong as possible right under the populous' nose. 

So, What definitively changed the direction of the storm in Project Cirrus?

Unfortunately, we (public) may never 100% know with certainty how the chemicals used could have changed the course of the storm so drastically (130 degrees). However, there are logical explanations, in the following

Silver Iodide Usage - Induces condensation and precipitation, altering the storm's energy dynamics, which may change its trajectory 

Increased Precipitation -  Affect the storm's internal pressure dynamics. Heavier rainfall leads to a decrease in surface pressure, which enhances the storm's ability to draw in surrounding air. This influx of air likely shifted the storm’s path, steering it toward different areas based on the changing pressure gradients.

Localized Cooling Effects -  Cooling may influence how the storm interacts with surrounding winds and air masses. A cooler core could result in changes in wind patterns, likely steering the storm in a different direction. 

Changes in Atmospheric Pressure -  Increased rainfall creates low-pressure areas, shifting pressure gradients and altering the storm's steering currents. 

Modification of Moisture content -  Increased moisture can enhance convection processes, leading to stronger updrafts, affecting how the storm moves through the atmosphere. Enhanced moisture levels might also lead to more vigorous storm development, which could create new interactions with environmental winds, causing a shift in the storm's trajectory. 

What we (public) do know with 100% certainty is the following, 

Project Cirrus' main goal was to strengthen a hurricane (shown with elements used) and to steer it to a heavily populated region of Savannah, Georgia where it would cause over $2million dollars' worth of damage (over $45million inflation adjusted) 

We confidently know this project had dangerous intent behind it due to the fact that shortly after the storm had done its damage, Dr. William J. Khan publicly stated that "We are trying to understand how to make it rain, but we might also be making it storm" 

This statement and overall concern from the team involved in Project Cirrus inadvertently showcased to the public that the team involved in Project Cirrus was 100% aware of what they did, and the damage caused by it.

It doesn't make sense that there would be any concern at all in the team if they had known the 130 degrees turn by the storm wasn't caused by them.

The result of this terrible project conducted by primarily government-controlled organizations in 1947 was unfortunately a success for those involved in the project. It's clear from the elements used and statements afterwards that this project never did intend to keep anyone safe, but instead to use the ~110,000 citizens of Savannah Georgia to experiment with their theories of making a hurricane stronger and steering it to cause harm.

Cloud seeding over Cuba from January 8th, 1969, to December 30th, 1970, was a subpart of a larger operation called Operation Tailwind.  The program sought to reduce rainfall and dry out Cuban crops, impacting the agricultural output of the island during a time of heightened Cold War tensions. Utilizing aircraft to disperse substances like silver iodide and sodium chloride, the operation reflected an attempt to leverage weather modification technology for strategic purposes against Cuba. 

People or organizations involved in this subpart of Operation Tailwind, which included drying out Cuban Crops were the US Air Force, and CIA.

Background -  The operation took place against the backdrop of heightened U.S.-Cuban tensions, following the Cuban Revolution and the establishment of a communist government under Fidel Castro. 

The U.S. sought to undermine Cuban agriculture and economy, viewing weather modification as a tool for achieving these goals without direct military confrontation as previous confrontation had failed (Bay of Pigs invasion 1961)

Operation Details - The operation used the following elements to help dry out crops, ranked from most used to least used.

Silver Iodide -  Nucleating agent for inducing precipitation 

Sodium Chloride -  Encouraging the formation of larger droplets that can fall as precipitation rather than evaporating, altering cloud dynamics reduces the likelihood of rain over specific agricultural areas 

Calcium Chloride -  Attract and hold moisture from the air, by drawing moisture away, it can help to limit the amount of precipitation that reaches the ground 

Potassium Chloride -  Modify cloud formation and precipitation processes when dispersed into the atmosphere, limit rainfall in specific areas 

Liquid Propane -  Create ice nuclei, encouraging precipitation, while primarily associated with inducing rain, its effects can also influence the timing and amount of rainfall. 

Solid Carbon Dioxide (dry ice) -  Cools the surrounding air and encourages the formation of ice crystals, this can lead to precipitation falling before it reaches the ground. 

Acetone -  Influence cloud microphysics by altering the characteristics of cloud droplets, direct impact on drying out crops is not as clear, however any alteration in precipitation patterns along with the other chemicals used can contribute to drier conditions. 

Ammonium Nitrate -  Lead to many small droplets that don't coalesce effectively, reducing precipitation, can result in more moisture evaporating rather than reaching the ground.

 All of the chemicals were dropped in a specific sequence to ensure it reached the desired result on Cuban crops

For example, silver iodide may have been deployed first to initiate cloud nucleation, followed by sodium chloride to further modify the cloud structure.

The timing of each chemical's deployment was also influenced by real-time weather observations. If a particular area showed promising cloud development, the chemicals would be deployed to maximize their impact.

Different chemicals could be used based on the atmospheric conditions at the time, as some were more effective under specific weather scenarios.

Implementation -  The U.S. Air Force was primarily responsible for executing the operation primarily using planes such as the C-130, B-17, these planes conducted flights over specific areas of Cuba to disperse the seeding agents. The CIA played a significant role in the planning and oversight of these missions. 

Outcomes -  Reports indicated that the operation was achieving its intended results, leading to decreased rainfall and adverse effects on Cuban crops. This disruption was particularly concerning for a country already facing economic challenges. 

This operation naturally raised significant ethical questions regarding the use of weather modification as a weapon. The idea of manipulating natural weather patterns for military purposes sparked debate about the morality of such actions. 

The result of this operation, as with the first major weather modification experiment (Project Cirrus), was generally a success.

The act of successfuly drying out Cuban crops did work however not neccessarily to the extend hoped for by the Americans.

The fact of the matter is, this act of warfare did negatively influence Cuba as intended to, which is still cause for concern as what other unpublicized experiments have been done purposely drying out agriculture for us or other countries.

This weather modification program aimed to extend the monsoon season in Southeast Asia to disrupt enemy supply lines and help with bombing during the Vietnam War by inducing rainfall. 

Objective - The primary goal was to extend the monsoon season over specific areas in Southeast Asia, particularly along the Ho Chi Minh Trail, to disrupt enemy supply lines, flood out the muddy terrain which would limit movement and aid with American bombing by blocking the radars and visual sights from ground weapons.

 As with the other methods of weather modification, various elements were used to aid in heavy precipitation, the following are the elements used in order by most used to least used by the Americans during the Vietnam war.

Silver Iodide - Promotes ice crystal formation in clouds, which leads to increased precipitation. 

Sodium Chloride - Enhance droplet formation in clouds, effectively increasing precipitation rates 

Calcium Chloride - Acted similarly to sodium chloride, aiding in cloud nucleation and enhancing moisture retention in clouds. 

Potassium Chloride - Used to modify cloud properties and facilitate increased rainfall through condensation processes. 

Liquid Propane - Introduced into clouds to assist in cooling and promoting droplet formation, indirectly contributing to rainfall. 

Solid Carbon Dioxide (dry ice) - Used to lower temperatures within clouds, encouraging ice crystal formation and subsequent precipitation 

Unlike the majority of weather modification experiments, we know with certainty the order of chemicals dropped based off publicly available declassified documents which could be found quite easily on the internet.

Initial Seeding with Silver Iodide:

First Step: The operation usually began with the dispersal of silver iodide (AgI), which acted as the primary cloud condensation nucleus. This was done to initiate cloud nucleation and promote ice crystal formation.

Follow-up

Second Step: After the initial seeding with silver iodide, sodium chloride (NaCl) and calcium chloride (CaCl2) were introduced. These chemicals helped enhance droplet formation and moisture retention within the clouds, increasing the likelihood of precipitation.

Third Step: Potassium chloride (KCl) deployed next to further modify cloud properties and promote additional condensation processes.

Liquid Propane and Dry Ice: Liquid propane (C3H8) and dry ice (solid CO2) were sometimes used in conjunction with the other chemicals to cool the clouds and support the formation of precipitation. Their introduction could occur alongside or after the initial seeding.

Targeted Areas - Seeding efforts focused on areas where the enemy was active, especially along the Ho Chi Minh Trail, which was a vital supply route for North Vietnamese forces. 

Tactical Advantages  

Flooding enemy supply lines - the operation aimed to flood trails and roads used by enemy troops and supply vehicles, making it difficult for them to move supplies and reinforcements. 

Enhanced Bombing Operations - 

The bombing served to soften the ground, making it more challenging for the enemy to maintain logistics and troop movements. This condition created opportunities for U.S. bombing raids, as the visibility and effectiveness of enemy operations would be diminished during heavy rains. 

Manipulation of weather conditions made it more challenging for enemy forces to monitor U.S. operations, including troop movements and bombing runs. The dense cloud cover could interfere with radar systems and limit the effectiveness of aerial reconnaissance. 

The prolonged monsoon conditions aimed to hinder enemy troop movements and logistics, leading to a tactical advantage for U.S. forces by disrupting the enemy’s operational capacity. 

Operation Popeye was successful in its objectives, particularly in disrupting enemy logistics and providing tactical advantages for U.S. forces through effective weather modification. The operation demonstrated major potential of cloud seeding as a military tool, influencing strategies in weather manipulation. 

Obviously, this was one of the most major instances of weather modification being used in a warfare setting, which does bring cause for concern as like most cases for weather modification, these are only the ones we know of, there are dozens of examples of storms or weather phenomenon's that just don't make sense under normal conditions, some examples are the following.

To be continued-

To be continued-